Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 22 Highlights
(MoeMaKa, November 23, 2024)
Global Affairs and Myanmar’s Situation
Since the end of World War II, the world witnessed a Cold War, marked by decades of arms races and scientific advancements between the Soviet Union and the U.S.-led Western bloc. After over 40 years of intense rivalry, some of the advanced weapons developed during that era are now seeing their first use in actual combat situations. For instance, advanced missiles capable of striking hundreds of kilometers away, initially developed but never deployed in wars over the past six or seven decades, are now being used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The U.S. and U.K. have provided Ukraine with such weapons, which Ukraine used to strike inside Russia. In turn, Russia has begun using long-range missiles like ICBMs and nuclear warheads, escalating the destruction and reach of weaponry on both sides.
As Western nations supporting Ukraine introduce increasingly sophisticated weaponry, global media has speculated about the possibility of a Third World War. In the Middle East, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has expanded to involve Hezbollah in Lebanon and increased tensions between Israel and Iran. These conflicts suggest the world is on the brink of regional wars in multiple hotspots.
How Global Affairs Impact Myanmar
Amid global focus on conflicts in Ukraine, Russia, Israel, and Palestine, attention to Myanmar’s crisis is diminishing. As major powers like the U.S., Russia, and European nations prioritize these pressing issues, opportunities to address Myanmar’s crisis on the international stage are shrinking.
Recently, the United Nations discussed Myanmar, focusing heavily on the Rohingya issue. The UN also agreed to hold talks early next year on the situation of the Rohingya people. However, UN resolutions failed to address significant measures, such as imposing an aviation fuel ban on Myanmar’s military regime. This led Myanmar’s UN representative, U Kyaw Moe Tun, to express disappointment.
Based on the current trajectory, Myanmar’s international relevance may further decline over the coming years. Western nations, led by the U.S., are likely to focus on countering Russia’s threats in Europe and supporting Israel in the Middle East rather than devoting significant attention or resources to Myanmar.
In this context, Myanmar’s crisis is likely to fall primarily under China’s purview, as it is the only major power in the region capable of influencing the situation.
Internal Dynamics and the Path Forward
The pro-democracy and federal movement opposing Myanmar’s military junta cannot rely on unwavering support from Western nations. While moral and rhetorical backing exists, tangible support remains limited. Myanmar’s pro-democracy forces, both inside and outside the country, must therefore rely on their own strength and strategic unity.
China, meanwhile, appears committed to preventing the collapse of Myanmar’s central authority. Its strategy includes stabilizing the region through dialogue and negotiation with armed groups to maintain regional peace. Since mid-2024, China has been advocating for discussions to resolve Myanmar’s armed conflicts.
Against this backdrop, it is crucial for Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, PDFs (People’s Defense Forces), and other resistance factions to achieve common ground and unified goals. Only through collective effort and cooperation can they create a long-term, unified strategy to counter the military junta and push for democratic and federal aspirations.