Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 20 Scenes
(MoeMaKa) November 21, 2024
Elections and Civil War
In various parts of the world, there is growing concern about whether regional conflicts might escalate into global wars. Since the end of World War II in 1945, the current global scenario appears to be the first steps toward another world war. While no large-scale deployment of weapons and troops has occurred yet, the potential for such escalation is being considered seriously. Discussions about how to respond to such a scenario are becoming more frequent in countries, especially in Western Europe.
The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war raises fears of the conflict spreading throughout Europe. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, further highlight potential flashpoints for broader wars. Israel, supported militarily by the United States, faces the possibility of expanded conflict involving Iran and Russia. These two regions—Eastern Europe and the Middle East—are currently considered critical areas where the fires of conflict might ignite more broadly.
As the Biden administration nears the final two months of its term, it has approved Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles. Shortly after this approval, Ukraine deployed these missiles in combat. In response, Russia has amended its nuclear weapons policies, coming closer to the possibility of using such weapons, signaling an escalation in global tensions.
Historically neutral countries like Norway and Sweden, which have long maintained non-involvement policies in armed conflicts, are now engaging in preparedness exercises. These countries are reassessing their approaches in light of Russia’s aggressive potential, demonstrating a significant shift in their traditional stances.
Myanmar’s Internal Conflict and Regional Dynamics
In Myanmar, the domestic civil war continues to rage in numerous regions. Over three years into the conflict, the fighting has displaced over three million people, and civilian casualties have reached alarming numbers, from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands. Against this backdrop of widespread conflict, elections are being promoted as a possible resolution by Myanmar’s neighbor, China.
China sees elections as a potential path out of the civil war. While it has avoided involvement in conflicts worldwide, Beijing views elections as a mechanism to stabilize Myanmar’s internal strife. China’s approach contrasts with its domestic political structure, which lacks opposition parties and competitive elections. Nevertheless, it appears to support elections in Myanmar as a pragmatic solution to end hostilities and maintain regional stability.
The military regime in Myanmar initially distanced itself from China, favoring Russia for military and diplomatic support. However, following the military’s 2027 operation in northern Shan State, relations between Myanmar and China have warmed. This shift underscores Beijing’s influence over ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar, prompting closer cooperation between the junta and China. China, in turn, perceives elections as a means to maintain the current power balance in Myanmar and avoid destabilizing upheavals.
Elections: A Viable Path or a Temporary Measure?
Can Myanmar’s internal conflict be extinguished with the “water” of elections, as China seems to suggest? Elections could create mixed reactions among opposition groups, including ethnic armed forces and pro-democracy factions like the NUG. Whether the post-election government can engage these groups in political and peace negotiations remains an open question.
In the history of Myanmar, elections were also held during the early stages of the civil war following independence in 1948. However, the circumstances back then were significantly different. Armed resistance groups were fewer, and the ethnic landscape was less diverse. Today, in contrast, the post-coup landscape sees forces committed to either permanently removing the military from politics or completely defeating it.
The key to resolving the civil war lies in the military stepping away from political power entirely. The proposed elections, slated for next year, are not designed to meet this goal. Instead, they aim to de-escalate fighting temporarily and stabilize the existing power dynamics. This approach reflects efforts to manage, rather than resolve, the underlying causes of the conflict.