Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 18 Insights
(Moemaka, November 19, 2024)
Chinese Government Detains MNDAA Leader
News emerged in mid-November that Peng Daxun, a top leader of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) based in Kokang, northeastern Shan State, was restricted from returning to Myanmar after traveling to Yunnan Province, China, at the end of October.
Reports about this incident have varied across news agencies. Some outlets reported that Peng was arrested, while others claimed he wasn’t detained but was denied entry back into Kokang. Additionally, certain reports mentioned he was under house arrest and pressured to withdraw forces from the Lashio area.
This development is significant for ethnic armed groups along the Chinese border, as it underscores China’s capacity to exert its influence. Ethnic armed groups are familiar with China’s diplomatic and economic power but did not anticipate that it would extend to detaining a group leader or placing one under house arrest. Peng Daxun reportedly traveled to Yunnan to visit a hotel owned by his late father, Peng Jiasheng.
Kokang leaders have long viewed China as a secondary homeland. Historically, these groups have had closer relations and dependencies on China than Myanmar’s central government. Over time, they have adapted to China’s policies and international stance, leveraging this relationship to sustain their operations.
Historical Context
China’s involvement in Myanmar’s internal affairs is not new. Dating back to the post-independence era, China supported the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) with arms, finances, and political guidance. However, China’s support for the CPB ceased in the late 1970s following Mao Zedong’s death and a shift in its foreign policy.
During the 1980s, China shifted its focus to economic ties with Myanmar’s military regimes, maintaining good relations and providing international cover. From 2011 to 2021, China maintained discreet relationships with ethnic armed groups along its borders while investing heavily in Myanmar’s infrastructure and resources.
Current Implications
Following the 2021 military coup, China’s stance has been cautious. While initially distancing itself, China has recalibrated its policy to support Myanmar’s military amid intensified armed conflicts, especially during the second phase of the 1027 military campaign.
Ethnic armed groups have grown wary of China’s influence and strategies. Recently, border trade restrictions and reports of Peng Daxun’s detention highlight a shift in China’s approach, signaling stronger control over armed groups operating along its borders.
Broader Impact
The detention of an MNDAA leader is a clear demonstration of China’s deep involvement in Myanmar’s affairs, which has been consistent for decades. This latest move may indicate China’s growing assertiveness in shaping Myanmar’s internal dynamics to suit its regional interests.
The current situation raises questions about the response from Myanmar’s resistance forces and ethnic armed groups. While MNDAA has yet to issue a formal statement, the broader implications for China’s role and influence in Myanmar’s ongoing conflict remain critical to watch.