Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 19 Overview
(MoeMaKa, November 20, 2024)
China’s Strategy and Myanmar Affairs
Myanmar’s armed conflict, shifts in military power dynamics, Chinese influence or pressure, territories controlled by armed groups, governance structures, airstrikes, displaced civilians, civilian casualties, relations among armed groups, joint attacks, and interests are all key issues shaping the country’s military, political, and international relations, as well as its future trajectory.
Efforts for Myanmar’s democratization, ending authoritarianism, establishing federal or confederate rights, resolving armed conflicts, and ensuring equal opportunities are challenges that domestic political and military groups must address. However, finding solutions to these issues is far more complex than it seems in practice.
Armed entities—be it the military, ethnic armed groups opposing the military, or People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)—must secure weapons, funding, and international support while ensuring supplies for their forces. These requirements necessitate engaging in international relations and mutual agreements that involve compromises, support, and interests.
Unlike island nations like Japan or the Philippines, Myanmar shares borders with neighbors, making it subject to the preferences, interests, and policies of those countries. Five countries border Myanmar, including India and China, which are powerful players both regionally and globally.
Although India is a significant power, its ambitions in regional and global politics are less pronounced compared to China. China, however, has increasingly involved itself in international and regional matters, including Southeast Asia. Myanmar, due to its strategic location as a link in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a gateway for trade routes from China’s southwestern provinces to the sea, holds particular importance to Beijing’s strategic interests.
If Myanmar had achieved unity and stability, Chinese influence might have been limited. However, the ongoing civil war has invited external involvement. Armed groups rely on China for weapons, funding, and access to resources. Cross-border trade and illegal transactions involving natural resources and narcotics are some of the unintended consequences of the ongoing conflict.
In regions bordering China, long-standing issues like narcotics production, smuggling of resources, and online scams have intertwined with the conflict. Proceeds from these illicit trades have sustained armed groups for decades. Recently, online financial scams operated by groups known as “Chiang Phyen” have expanded alongside drug production and smuggling, linking illicit economies to the conflict.
China has reportedly sought to prevent the spillover of these activities into its borders while maintaining surveillance over others. The military power shifts and territorial changes following the 2021 coup have escalated armed conflicts in these regions, prompting strategic recalibrations by China.
Military leaders and armed groups dependent on Chinese resources for survival are unlikely to make independent decisions without China’s influence. Whether these groups can break free from this reliance remains uncertain and is an issue requiring careful observation in the coming years.