Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 16 Perspective
(MoeMaKa) August 17, 2024
The Struggles of the People Amid Fuel Shortages
News and social media have been filled with reports of people waiting for hours, even overnight, in long lines for fuel. Schools are struggling with transportation issues as school buses face challenges, and companies are unable to run their employee shuttle services as usual. Initially, these hardships were primarily faced by private car owners, but the situation has now escalated, affecting the economy, education, and healthcare sectors.
The military junta’s policy of conserving foreign currency, coupled with the unrealistic pricing of fuel based on a fixed, non-market exchange rate, has led to the current crisis. While other factors, such as the monopolistic control of the retail fuel market by large importing companies, may also contribute, the immediate cause appears to be the foreign currency restrictions and the inability to adjust fuel prices in line with the devaluation of the Kyat. This has resulted in a significant reduction in available fuel, causing widespread shortages.
Though it’s too early to predict whether these events will threaten the junta’s grip on power, the situation is clearly impacting non-conflict areas of the country, affecting the economy, healthcare, and education. This exacerbates the existing public discontent, which has been fueled by the junta’s ongoing military rule, unlawful arrests, and lack of justice. In cities, where military activities dominate over political movements, there seems little likelihood of protests emerging from the current fuel crisis. The junta’s repression, coupled with the preference among many for armed resistance over protests, has diminished the potential for political mobilization.
As economic hardships worsen, the junta may fear that political opposition and protests will rise. However, the widespread arrests and repression of opposition have left urban areas with few organized political groups to lead such movements. The current circumstances suggest that while there is anger, the prevailing belief is that armed struggle, rather than political action, is the path to overthrowing the military.
The people living under junta-controlled areas are suffering not only from the devaluation of the Kyat and fuel shortages but also from shortages of food, medicine, and declining incomes. Even those in regions controlled by ethnic armed groups are affected by these shortages, as they rely heavily on trade with the rest of the country, which remains under junta control.
In regions that are politically and militarily liberated, there are still significant challenges in managing the economy. With restrictions on imports, rising prices, and taxes imposed by armed groups, people are forced to buy essential goods like food and medicine at high prices.
The banking system is also faltering, making it difficult for people to access and use their funds in banks or digital wallets like KBZPay. In liberated areas, even as military control is established, managing the economy and achieving stability will be challenging, with obstacles like these needing to be overcome.
For example, in Rakhine State, where the Kyat is still in use, the scarcity of cash and difficulties in digital transactions due to internet shutdowns have become common, especially in many parts of the state.
In these circumstances, displaced people and those in liberated areas are facing significant obstacles in finding jobs and making a living, leading to a situation where they must ration their limited resources.
In the current context, the military’s victory may be seen as the priority, with other issues deemed secondary. However, it remains the responsibility of any organization addressing the needs of the people to find solutions to the immediate problems and hardships they are facing.