Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 18th Scene
(MoeMaKa) August 19, 2024
PDF Forces Capture Dipeyin Town in Sagaing Region, the Rohingya Refugee Issue, and Bangladesh’s Interim Government Policy
In northern Shan State, intense battles for town captures occurred, with some towns being re-captured by northern armed groups during July and August. Meanwhile, in Rakhine State, the Arakan Army (AA) continued to capture towns one by one, leading to ongoing conflicts. In Sagaing Region, where People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) have been resisting the military council with handmade weapons and small arms since the coup in early 2021, local PDF groups declared that they had captured the entire town of Dipeyin after nearly four days of fighting.
Details on how many armed groups were involved in the capture, which of them were under the National Unity Government (NUG), and how many were local PDF forces (LPDFs) are still unclear. However, reports from the Irrawaddy news outlet indicate that the current battle in Dipeyin is coordinated by the NUG’s Ministry of Defense’s Division 1 command, which includes the Shwebo District command, battalions within Shwebo District, and PDF units from Dipeyin, Butalin, and other neighboring townships. RFA reported that the LPDF group led by a leader known as Colonel Kyaw Gyi was involved in the Dipeyin capture, but there has been no official announcement from NUG’s Ministry of Defense.
Since the military coup in early 2021, Sagaing Region has seen various local defense groups form, often independently and with varying levels of coordination, due to the challenges of organizing under a unified command. The NUG has attempted to form township-level defense, administrative, and security groups, but local, independent armed groups continue to operate.
In November of this year, NUG’s PDF forces briefly captured Kaw Linn, a key town in northern Sagaing, but it was recaptured by the military council after just over a month. Unlike previous failed attempts to capture towns like Dipeyin, Yinmabin, Kanbalu, and others in central Sagaing, the recent success in Dipeyin stands out.
In northern Sagaing towns like Kalay, the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) supporters have been organized into people’s militias, armed to protect villages and towns. In towns like Kanbalu and Kyunhla, the military council’s forces have made it difficult for PDFs to establish bases.
As this report is being written, the military council is launching a counter-offensive with airstrikes and reinforcements to reclaim parts of Dipeyin that are currently under PDF control. The armed resistance groups are likely exploiting the military’s inability to send large reinforcements to Sagaing and Magway, due to the broader conflict fronts in Shan, Rakhine, and Kachin States.
Sagaing’s flat terrain presents challenges for cutting off reinforcements and maintaining control of captured towns, unlike the mountainous regions in northern Shan where towns can be more easily held after capture. Holding towns like Dipeyin, which is surrounded by open plains, will likely require significant manpower and weaponry.
Regarding the neighboring country Bangladesh, after the resignation and flight of the most powerful Prime Minister on August 5th, the interim government has signaled a commitment to addressing the Rohingya issue in its first policy speech to the nation.
Bangladesh, which has hosted over a million Rohingya refugees fleeing Myanmar for nearly eight years, now faces the challenge of potentially accepting more refugees from the ongoing conflict in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine State. Under the previous Prime Minister Hasina, the refugees were provided with basic necessities but faced harsh living conditions, including limited educational opportunities, and the threat of violence from armed groups within the camps. The new interim government’s approach to the refugee crisis remains to be seen.
There are reports from border residents that security has been significantly tightened, five times more than before, to prevent more refugees from crossing into Bangladesh amid the current heavy fighting in Rakhine.