Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 14
Diplomatic Maneuvers and Ongoing Clashes
MoeMaKa, December 15, 2023
Thai Prime Minister Advocates Leadership in Myanmar Talks
Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has expressed that Thailand should spearhead discussions on Myanmar affairs on behalf of ASEAN countries. He underscored Thailand’s vulnerability to the repercussions of Myanmar’s political and military instability, citing armed conflicts, cross-border refugees, illegal border crossings by workers, political fugitives, and illicit drug smuggling. This statement follows Indonesia’s efforts, as the current ASEAN rotating chairman, to find solutions by engaging with all parties related to the Myanmar issue. Notably, Indonesia conducted separate meetings last month, with representatives from the NUG, ABSDF, and certain ethnic armed organizations present. Meanwhile, the Military Council has refrained from sending representatives to ASEAN meetings since mid-2021, objecting to ASEAN’s decision to limit attendance to non-political representatives from the Department of Foreign Affairs. There appears to be a subtle competition between Indonesia and Thailand for leadership within ASEAN politics, with analysts noting the indirect criticism by Indonesia of Thailand’s secretive diplomatic moves in July.
Chinese-Mediated Talks and Ongoing Clashes
In a recent development, a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that peace talks in Kunming between the 3 Brotherhood Alliances and the military council resulted in a temporary ceasefire agreement. The specific statements from relevant organizations are yet to be released. The military council spokesperson mentioned plans for a follow-up meeting at the end of the month, emphasizing positive outcomes achieved with China’s mediation. Meanwhile, the 3 Northern Brotherhood Alliances issued a general statement. Despite the reported agreement, fierce clashes persist between the TNLA armed group and the military council in Namhkam, Muse, and Namhsan. Notably, the battlefront in Laukkaing city, where the MNDAA and the military council face off, remains calmer than anticipated.
The MNDAA has refrained from launching serious attacks on military council camps, prompting speculation about negotiations to evacuate the city rather than cause destruction. During the 1027 operation, the MNDAA successfully captured numerous target areas, leaving Laukkaing as the remaining city. For the TNLA group, the extent of their goals remains uncertain. While they recently secured the military council camp at 105 miles of Muse, the new military council camp in Namhkam remains unconquered. In Namhsan, the military council’s army tea leave factory has been seized, triggering heavy air strikes, city fires, and civilian casualties.
Despite China’s positive evaluation of the Kunming ceasefire talks, the ongoing attacks raise questions about their impact on the broader conflict. The situation continues to unfold, with diplomatic initiatives and military operations shaping the course of events.