Myanmar Spring Chronicle – September 15
Published by MoeMaKa on September 16, 2023
Escalation of Ethnic Armed Conflicts in Myanmar’s Border Regions
In recent times, there has been a noticeable surge in the frequency of attacks and takeovers of military council camps in Myanmar’s border regions. Ethnic armed groups and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) have been increasingly targeting areas such as Karenni Region, Karen State, and the border near Thailand, along with several camps in Bago Region.
Tensions escalated when clashes erupted following the capture of a military base and a police station in Mese town in Karenni State, compelling tens of thousands of local residents to seek refuge in the Thai border town of Mae Hong Song.
Subsequently, joint forces comprising the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and PDF took control of Lat Khat Taung Camp Hill in Myawaddy Township, Karen State. This camp, previously held by the military council and Border Guard Force (BGF), remains under their control to this day. More recently, Yay Ta Lyout camp, situated within the territory of Karen National Union (KNU) Brigade 6th in Kawkareik Township, Karen State, came under attack and was seized. This camp, positioned along the Thai-Myanmar border, was a stronghold of the military council. Ethnic armed groups and PDF coalitions have systematically targeted military council camps located along the borders of neighboring nations.
Several factors may account for this shift in strategy. It is possible that the military council’s capacity to safeguard camps near the border has been stretched thin as they concentrate efforts on urban centers. In recent years, there have been instances where ethnic armed forces and PDFs launched incursions into towns, attempting to assume control or challenge military rule. Notable incidents include attacks on neighborhoods in Loikaw town in the Karenni Region, skirmishes near Mobye and Pekon towns, and two separate attacks on Kawkareik town in Karen State. In these confrontations, ethnic armed groups and PDFs withdrew as the military council deployed air support.
The revolutionary forces may have reevaluated their goals, shifting focus from capturing cities to border military camps due to potential limitations in weaponry, equipment, and air defenses required for urban assaults, which are tantamount to military occupations.
The military council is increasingly directing its attention to the administration of their battalions, bases, and urban centers. While air support has been extended to besieged border posts, the high casualties on the ground are reportedly demoralizing military council troops, leading to signs of desertion.
These dynamics are unfolding in certain regions of Karenni State, Karen State, and the eastern part of Bago Division bordering Karen State, but they are not indicative of the entire country. In border regions such as Chin State, Kachin State, Northern Shan State, Rakhine State, and Tanintharyi Division, while there is sporadic fighting on military council routes and in villages, no camps have been successfully taken over. In summary, over the past six months to a year, the military council’s territorial control in Karenni State, Karen State, and the eastern border areas of Bago has markedly diminished, with ethnic armed groups and the PDF coalition expanding their influence. It is essential to recognize that not all ethnic regions are under complete control.