Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 8 Overview
(MoeMaKa, November 9, 2025)
After TNLA’s Ceasefire, MDY PDF Loses Territory in Mandalay Region
Following the October 27–28 talks in Kunming, Yunnan Province, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) — one of the three members of the Northern Brotherhood Alliance — reached its second ceasefire agreement with the military junta within two years.
Under this new agreement, both sides agreed to halt fighting and maintain their positions, while TNLA pledged to withdraw from the towns of Mogok and Momeik.
Up until mid-2024, the Brotherhood Alliance’s joint forces — TNLA, MNDAA, and AA — had captured numerous towns across northern Shan State. TNLA and allied PDFs also fought intense battles around Naungcho and Taungkam (Taung Kham), while MDY PDF units pushed southward, even seizing control of parts of the Alpha Cement Plant, a Chinese-backed project in Patheingyi Township, near Mandalay. However, in recent days, the military recaptured the Saittaunggyi area, which the MDY PDF had previously held.
After months of heavy fighting in Taungkam, TNLA’s offensives stalled and the group withdrew from Naungcho, followed by successive losses of Kyaukme and Hsipaw, leading up to the current ceasefire deal.
For the MDY PDF (Mandalay People’s Defense Force), which had coordinated operations with TNLA along the Mandalay–Northern Shan border, the ceasefire now leaves them facing the junta alone.
Currently, MDY PDF forces are engaged in fierce battles in Madaya and Singu townships, while also preparing to defend Mogok, which TNLA is expected to vacate soon. Although Mogok is officially part of Mandalay Region, geographically it sits on the edge of northern Shan, northeast of Madaya, Singu, and Thabeikkyin. Momeik, by contrast, lies further north, well inside Shan State.
It is not yet clear whether MDY PDF will focus its resources on defending key routes like Thabeikkyin–Madaya–Singu and the Mandalay–Myitkyina highway, or whether it will join the defense of Mogok, a strategically and symbolically important gem-mining town.
The military’s recent ability to retake the Saittaunggyi area once controlled by MDY PDF has raised speculation. Some analysts suggest this was made possible because, after the ceasefire, the junta could redeploy troops that were no longer needed to fight TNLA — allowing it to launch new offensives elsewhere.
For MDY PDF, defending Mogok now carries both strategic and psychological weight. Yet focusing forces on the northeastern frontier could also leave their main strongholds — Madaya, Singu, and Thabeikkyin — vulnerable to renewed assaults by the military.
During Operation 1027, coordinated EAO–PDF offensives captured numerous towns and disrupted key military logistics routes. But since early 2025, ceasefires, ammunition shortages, and junta air and drone superiority have significantly shifted the military balance.
The once-mobile resistance campaigns have had to transition from offensive guerrilla warfare to defensive positional warfare, emphasizing territory-holding and local governance instead of constant attacks.
From October 2023 through the end of 2024, the junta suffered devastating setbacks — losing regional commands, bases, and high-ranking officers, including several brigadier generals and command chiefs. These losses forced the junta, at the start of 2025, to seek ways to halt the downward spiral.
Through Chinese diplomatic pressure, renewed arms acquisitions, and coercion of ethnic armed groups near the China border, the junta managed to stabilize its position and halt its defeats. It also implemented forced conscription laws to replace manpower losses and intensified daily airstrikes and drone attacks against resistance-held towns — aiming to crush morale and wear down opposition forces.
These combined tactics have led to two of the three Brotherhood Alliance members agreeing to ceasefires, allowing the junta to regain parts of northern Shan and secure certain key routes.
In this new reality, the MDY PDF now faces a crucial test:
How can it defend its remaining territory against renewed junta offensives?
Observers note that MDY PDF is approaching a decisive moment — one where it must craft a clear strategy and make hard choices about whether to fight for symbolic ground like Mogok or to preserve its core bases for the longer struggle ahead.