Myanmar Spring Chronicle – April 4 Overview
Moemaka, April 5, 2025
Myanmar suffers its most devastating earthquake in a century during the ongoing civil war
Myanmar, already engulfed in civil war, has now been struck by one of the most devastating earthquakes in the past century. The quake centered in the Sagaing region severely impacted key areas of Upper Myanmar — commonly known for being the cultural core of the country — including Kachin, Sagaing, and Chin States. Major cities such as Mandalay, a crucial hub for trade, education, and social affairs, and Sagaing city, famed for its Buddhist pagodas and monastic institutions, have seen extensive destruction.
As of now, no organization can accurately determine the death toll or quantify the physical and economic losses, including damage to buildings, businesses, livelihoods, and cultural heritage sites.
While casualties are still being counted, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated, based on satellite imagery, that the damage caused by the quake could exceed 67 billion USD — a figure that surpasses the total gross domestic product (GDP) of Myanmar. Although the accuracy of this estimate cannot be verified at this moment, the scale of destruction is being compared to the losses suffered during the most critical times in Myanmar’s modern history, such as World War II and the civil conflict of 1949–1952.
During World War II, the entire country became a battlefield, suffering from airstrikes, the destruction of infrastructure, ethnic conflicts, famine, and disease, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands. The three-year period was one of the darkest in Myanmar’s history, making it clear that the ongoing conflict cannot yet be considered more devastating than that period.
After WWII, by 1949, the country plunged into civil war again, which lasted three years. Records show civilian deaths numbered around 22,000, with another 5,700 among armed forces and civil servants. Civilian property loss was estimated at 95 million USD at the time — equivalent to about 1.27 billion USD today.
Compared to those historical figures, the extent of damage from the ongoing civil war since 2021 remains unknown due to a lack of comprehensive estimates. However, given the current population size and the scale of economic activity, it’s believed the impact of the March 28, 2025 earthquake could exceed past losses. This also highlights the enormous challenges that lie ahead in terms of national recovery and rebuilding.
Beyond physical destruction, the psychological toll is equally severe and harder to quantify. The depth of trauma, both physical and emotional, is so intense that it is difficult to witness. Social media is flooded with heartbreaking stories from residents in cities like Mandalay, Sagaing, Kyaukse, Pyawbwe, Pyin Oo Lwin, and Naypyidaw. A single post, video clip, or photograph can bring tears to viewers’ eyes and pierce the heart with sorrow.
Even those living far from the epicenter, who didn’t experience the sights, sounds, or smells of destruction firsthand, still feel the emotional weight through the images and stories. The suffering is palpable, and the collective grief is widespread.
This earthquake, occurring at the peak of Myanmar’s ongoing civil war, is a disaster one might only expect to face once in a century. The fate of the country and its people seems overwhelmingly tragic.
To make matters worse, some of the hardest-hit areas are active warzones. In Sagaing, for example, recent battles between the military junta and PDF resistance forces have left the region riddled with landmines. Rescuers now must carry out relief operations in these dangerous conditions.
In Khotown village, on the road from Sagaing to Minkin, homes and vehicles had recently been burned, and locals had already been displaced — a grim reality now compounded by the earthquake’s destruction.
Looking back over 100–150 years of Myanmar’s history, this period stands among the darkest. Since the fall of Upper Myanmar to British colonization in 1885, through violent anti-colonial uprisings, the devastation of WWII, civil wars during the parliamentary democracy era, and now the post-2021 military coup period, Myanmar has repeatedly endured some of the most tragic and turbulent times in its history.