Myanmar Spring Chronicle – April 3 Scene
MoeMaKha, April 4, 2025
Is the Military Leader’s Thailand Trip an Attempt to Gain Diplomatic Recognition?
While rescue operations remain unfinished in cities like Mandalay—the second largest city in Myanmar—and even the capital Naypyidaw following the devastating March 28 earthquake, the country’s military leader has traveled to Thailand to attend the annual summit of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).
The BIMSTEC bloc includes seven South and Southeast Asian countries: India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, and Myanmar. The military leader’s attendance can be interpreted as an effort to gain diplomatic recognition through this forum. However, controversy surrounds Thailand’s invitation, with opposition groups criticizing its Prime Minister for inviting a leader responsible for widespread human rights violations.
Thailand may have extended the invitation based on the assumption that it had limited discretion as the host nation, with the decision resting more heavily on the BIMSTEC organization.
When the Indian Prime Minister arrived, Indian citizens welcomed him at the Bangkok airport. In contrast, when Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing arrived, no Myanmar citizens were there to welcome him—reflecting not only a lack of support but also concern that public displays of support might carry serious risks.
Critics say the visit is especially tone-deaf given that the country is still reeling from the worst earthquake in years. Many people remain buried under rubble, and even in Naypyidaw, government employees are reportedly still sleeping along roadsides. Against this backdrop, the military leader’s decision to attend an overseas summit sends a message that the regime is turning its back on victims and survivors.
In contrast, leaders around the world typically cancel foreign trips during major domestic disasters or periods of political instability to focus on their nations. But Min Aung Hlaing appears to have prioritized the opportunity to gain legitimacy as a state leader, regardless of what is happening at home.
After seizing power, Min Aung Hlaing initially agreed to implement ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus. However, more than four years later, none of its points have been enacted. Because of this, ASEAN has suspended Myanmar’s political representation and barred the military leadership from attending top-level meetings.
Now, the invitation to BIMSTEC may be seen by Min Aung Hlaing as a platform to promote propaganda and earn recognition for his junta. He is attempting to leverage this disaster and the international humanitarian aid response to portray his regime as a legitimate government.
Some countries and international organizations have sent emergency teams, supplies, and medical aid, but they’re doing so to help the people, not to recognize the military regime. Despite this, the junta is using their involvement to spread the message that it is being internationally recognized.
In reality, local resistance forces and ethnic armed groups have provided much of the on-ground rescue work, while the regime’s response has been minimal. The international community can clearly assess the military’s lack of capability through this crisis.
As of now, many foreign governments are focusing their support solely on easing the suffering of the people. Recognition of the junta is not their priority.
Meanwhile, the military leadership is focused more on gaining political legitimacy than on helping its own people. With the U.S. now under President Trump again and global political dynamics shifting, Western pressure on Myanmar has decreased. The junta seems to view this as an opportunity.
With America’s influence waning in Southeast Asia, China has stepped in more assertively. The Myanmar military, dependent on both China and Russia, has already visited Russia at the invitation of President Putin. During that visit, they announced elections would be held between December this year and January next year.
However, even during this current Thailand trip, they’ve reaffirmed that the elections will not be postponed despite the natural disaster.
Some ASEAN neighbors, such as Singapore, have pushed back. Singapore’s Foreign Minister quickly called for an immediate ceasefire, saying this was necessary to allow humanitarian aid to reach those in need. In the days that followed, some armed groups and the military council issued temporary ceasefire statements.
Still, despite these declarations, airstrikes by the military have continued in Kachin, Kayah (Karenni), and Rakhine States even up to the present.
While Min Aung Hlaing may see his Thailand visit as a diplomatic victory, his inability to effectively manage the emergency response back home may ultimately backfire. His efforts to gain international recognition through diplomacy abroad may only reinforce the view that the regime is more concerned with propaganda than with its people’s suffering.