Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 16 Overview
MoeMaKa, December 17, 2024
What Hope Is Left for People Affected by the Civil War at the End of 2024?
As the year 2024 comes to a close, Myanmar continues to suffer under civil war and instability. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has recently announced intentions for a ceasefire, and representatives of the military council have traveled to China for talks with ethnic armed groups regarding peace negotiations.
The Arakan Army (AA), however, has rejected the military council’s call for disarmament and dialogue. AA stated, “It is the military council that must stop acts of violence, lay down arms, and apologize to the people,” according to VOA News.
While the junta has unilaterally declared a ceasefire under pressure from China, groups like TNLA and MNDAA, part of the Brotherhood Alliance, are reportedly continuing local governance, health, and education initiatives in territories they control. However, civilian casualties from airstrikes launched by the military council are ongoing.
The civil war and forced conscription by the junta have caused mass displacement. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are growing in numbers, and many are crossing into Thailand, becoming migrant workers or stateless individuals. Thai authorities have also announced a new registration program for undocumented migrant workers, effective December 16, with employers able to register online. Critics argue that the 15-day registration period is insufficient given the massive number of workers involved.
According to reports, by February 13, 2025, the current registration for foreign workers is set to expire. The total includes around 2 million Myanmar workers, 300,000 Cambodians, 90,000 Laotians, and 3,000 Vietnamese. Of these, approximately 150,000 Myanmar workers have come to Thailand through official MOU agreements. However, the junta’s plans to operate only three consular offices in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Ranong have left many migrants struggling with registration and paying high fees for makeshift residency cards, which cost upwards of 10,000 Thai baht.
Regional Efforts Toward Myanmar’s Crisis
China and ASEAN appear to be taking more significant steps to address Myanmar’s conflict in 2025. Thailand previously offered to host informal peace talks in October, and Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa announced plans for separate discussions on December 19-20.
The December 19 meeting will involve Myanmar military representatives and focus on border security and cross-border crime. It will also include representatives from neighboring countries: China, India, Bangladesh, Laos, and Thailand.
On December 20, ASEAN foreign ministers will meet to discuss Myanmar, including the Five-Point Consensus peace plan. Malaysia, which will chair ASEAN in 2025, has pledged to prioritize Myanmar’s peace process. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim reaffirmed this commitment on December 16.
Uncertain Future for Myanmar
As 2024 nears its end, the people of Myanmar see little sign of light at the end of the tunnel. Neighboring countries are making cautious attempts to address the crisis, but displaced citizens continue to hold on to a fragile hope for a better future. For now, many remain in survival mode, clinging to the smallest possibilities of relief amid ongoing chaos and despair.