Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 1 Scene
(Moemaka) November 2, 2024
Who Is Most Affected by the Trade Blockade?
Reports indicate that certain border gates in northern Shan State, eastern Shan, and Kachin State, which are near China, are experiencing restrictions on both imports and exports. For the past two weeks, China has been limiting imports of essential goods like food, electrical supplies, fuel, and medicine into Myanmar.
This selective restriction or total blockade at some checkpoints appears to target ethnic armed groups like the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which are engaged in combat against the Myanmar military. Additionally, it may be aimed at cutting off trade with the United Wa State Army and Mongla NDAA, groups known to have ties with the above factions.
While items like fuel, rice, medicine, and other essentials are not used solely by these armed groups, they are also vital for the civilian population living in northern Shan and Kachin State. Due to the current security situation and limited transport links, people rely heavily on supplies from China.
China’s decision to impose these trade restrictions is unusual. Generally, China has been critical of trade sanctions and blockades, as seen in the Ukraine conflict where it opposed Western sanctions on Russia, noting that such actions hurt ordinary people as well.
However, the ongoing trade restrictions in northern Shan State, eastern Shan, and Kachin State have begun to significantly affect the local population.
In just two weeks, prices for fuel, rice, and medicine have spiked, in some cases by 300–500%. This shortage of essential goods not only slows down potential offensives by the ethnic armed groups against the military but could also aim to strain the administrative capabilities of these groups, affecting their ability to provide jobs and support for local communities.
Nevertheless, the trade blockades place immense hardship on civilians, making it nearly impossible to afford basic necessities amid skyrocketing prices. For those who rely on agriculture for their livelihoods, fuel shortages mean a halt to work and immense strain on families trying to survive.
Trade restrictions are not only being imposed from the Chinese side; the Myanmar military is also restricting the flow of rice, fuel, and medicines from central and southern Myanmar to conflict areas.
Rakhine State, Sagaing Region, Kayah (Karenni) State, Kachin, and Chin States are also facing these restrictions, with Rakhine particularly hard-hit. Under these conditions, the question arises: how much longer can the local population endure? For the ethnic armed groups, the challenge lies in understanding the extent of hardship and risk the people are facing under these blockades.