Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 9 Overview
(MoeMaKa, November 10, 2024)
Civil War, Blockades, and Famine
Nearly three years have passed since the outbreak of the civil war, and in 2024, the intensity and scale of the conflict, as well as the number of casualties and destruction in towns and residential buildings, have reached unprecedented levels. The number of fatalities is now so high that deaths in the tens are no longer considered newsworthy. Civilian casualties, detentions, forced conscriptions, combat deaths, and damage to towns and villages have become daily occurrences across much of the country.
In Rakhine State, under a widespread blockade imposed by the military council, hundreds of thousands of people are facing severe difficulties in accessing food supplies. The AA (Arakan Army) now controls more territory and towns than the military council, leading the council to restrict the entry of food, fuel, and medicine into Rakhine State. Essential supplies are primarily transported by water routes and distributed exclusively to the military council’s armed forces, administrative staff, and a small number of civilians. Though Rakhine State is a rice-producing region, logistical challenges—such as security, fuel shortages, and high transportation costs—are making food scarce and pushing many ordinary civilians to the brink of starvation. The blockade, imposed shortly after clashes erupted on November 13 last year between the AA and the military council forces, is now nearing its one-year anniversary.
Amidst the blockades and armed conflicts, those with the means to flee have attempted to leave to safer areas, but the majority remain unable to escape. Civilians in southern Rakhine, in towns like Thandwe, have managed to flee to safer regions in Ayeyarwady Division when fighting reached their areas. However, civilians in northern and western Rakhine, such as Sittwe and Kyaukpyu, face limited escape options due to high costs and difficult access to these towns from other parts of Rakhine.
Due to the severe blockade, an estimated 2 million people in Rakhine State could face famine by mid-next year, according to a recent report from the UN Development Program. The report highlights that restrictions on food, fuel, and medicine imports are undermining local livelihoods and production while pushing food prices beyond affordability. The report estimates that 95% of Rakhine’s population is now at risk of significant hardship.
After a year of imposing food, fuel, and medical blockades to gain a military advantage, the military council now faces mounting losses, including losing control over western command areas. This policy has not proven effective militarily and has instead severely impacted the lives of millions of civilians in Rakhine. In essence, these actions by the military council amount to a crime against humanity.