{"id":8085,"date":"2025-10-17T00:34:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T18:04:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/?p=8085"},"modified":"2025-10-17T00:34:58","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T18:04:58","slug":"the-10th-anniversary-of-the-nca-and-myanmars-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/2025\/10\/the-10th-anniversary-of-the-nca-and-myanmars-future\/","title":{"rendered":"The 10th Anniversary of the NCA and Myanmar\u2019s Future"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 October 15: Scene<\/strong>
(MoeMaKa, October 16, 2025)<\/em><\/p>\n

The 10th Anniversary of the NCA and Myanmar\u2019s Future<\/strong><\/p>\n

From October 15 to 17<\/strong>, Myanmar\u2019s military regime held grand ceremonies and discussions in Naypyitaw to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA)<\/strong> \u2014 originally signed in 2015<\/strong> between the government of President Thein Sein<\/strong> and eight ethnic armed organizations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

But ten years after the signing, the contrast could not be starker: over half of the country\u2019s territory is now engulfed in civil war.<\/strong> Many new armed groups have emerged since 2015 \u2014 and small forces that once numbered only in the thousands have grown into armies tens of thousands strong.<\/p>\n

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War and Humanitarian Crisis<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Nationwide, it\u2019s estimated that between 3 and 4 million people<\/strong> have been displaced from their homes. Tens of thousands of civilians have been killed, and countless more have disappeared after arrests, torture, or summary executions \u2014 often accused of being informants or collaborators.<\/p>\n

Airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and arson attacks have destroyed tens of thousands \u2014 possibly hundreds of thousands \u2014 of homes and villages<\/strong>. Livelihoods have collapsed, with millions now dependent on humanitarian aid for survival.<\/p>\n

Drug production and smuggling \u2014 along with the exploitation and sale of natural resources \u2014 have surged as key sources of war financing, though no reliable data exist. Arrest records and seizures suggest the trade has expanded dramatically. Environmental destruction from reckless extraction has also accelerated.<\/p>\n

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The Root of Collapse: The 2021 Coup<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The single event that ignited this national catastrophe was the military coup of February 1, 2021<\/strong>.
That coup, which overthrew the elected NLD government<\/strong> just before the new parliament was to convene, effectively opened a Pandora\u2019s box<\/strong> that unleashed the current crisis.<\/p>\n

Now, the same coup leader \u2014 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing<\/strong> \u2014 is publicly calling for a return to the kind of stability that existed between 2015 and 2020<\/strong>. Yet, as ordinary citizens understand, this is absurd: the coup itself destroyed that stability.<\/p>\n

Among the groups that originally signed the NCA \u2014 such as the KNU<\/strong>, CNF<\/strong>, ABSDF<\/strong>, NMSP (and its splinter NMSP-AD)<\/strong>, and PNLO\/PNLA<\/strong> \u2014 many have since resumed fighting against the military.<\/p>\n

The NCA, once a symbol of progress, has now shattered like broken pottery<\/strong>, impossible to mend. Of the three parties who signed it \u2014 the government, the parliament, and the armed groups \u2014 only some armed organizations and the coup regime remain; there is no longer an elected government or functioning legislature.<\/p>\n

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The 2025 Anniversary Event<\/strong><\/h3>\n

At this year\u2019s ceremony, the junta chief declared that ethnic organizations should submit their political demands \u201cthrough parliament,\u201d not \u201cat gunpoint.\u201d
But that argument rings hollow: the very reason there is no parliament<\/em> is because the military dissolved it by force<\/strong> in 2021.<\/p>\n

In fact, it was the military\u2019s annulment<\/strong> of the 2020 election results \u2014 the third held under the 2008 Constitution \u2014 that plunged the country back into war.<\/p>\n

Those attending the 10th-anniversary events included:<\/p>\n