{"id":7817,"date":"2025-09-26T00:08:27","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T17:38:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/?p=7817"},"modified":"2025-09-26T00:08:30","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T17:38:30","slug":"karen-state-front-surges-with-manpower-and-arms-kachin-state-front-stalls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/2025\/09\/karen-state-front-surges-with-manpower-and-arms-kachin-state-front-stalls\/","title":{"rendered":"Karen State front surges with manpower and arms; Kachin State front stalls"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"\"<\/a><\/h1>\n

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 View from September 24<\/h1>\n

(MoeMaKa, September 25, 2025)<\/p>\n

Karen State front surges with manpower and arms; Kachin State front stalls<\/h2>\n

After holding the line for over a year, the coup military has, since last August, regrouped with thousands of troops, drones, and heavier weapons<\/strong>, and regained assistance from local border forces BGF and DKBA<\/strong>. They have been pressing continuously to seize Thingannyinaung strategic area, Myawaddy town<\/strong>, and then push on toward Lay Kay Kaw<\/strong> and Shwe Tao Kone<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

For the KNU\/KNLA<\/strong>, the situation in Karen State is not just a bilateral fight with the junta. Outcomes are also shaped by other Karen armed groups\u2019 shifting positions<\/strong>, the border-trade routes and customs revenues<\/strong>, and the money from illegal online scams and gambling<\/strong> that operate along the Thai\u2013Myanmar frontier\u2014factors of nationalism, self-interest, and criminal economies that all influence the battlefield.<\/p>\n

During the peak of Operation 1027<\/strong> last year, several forces that had been \u201cborder guards\u201d (BGF) effectively acted as independent armed groups<\/strong> protecting land for gambling and online fraud hubs<\/strong> near the border. That period coincided with repeated losses for the junta. At that time, the BGF led by Saw Chit Thu<\/strong> rebranded itself as the Karen National Army (KNA)<\/strong>, and the DKBA<\/strong> also stood against the junta. Yet even when the resistance was strong last year, the KNU\/KNLA could not take Myawaddy<\/strong>; the BGF positioned itself between the KNU\/KNLA and the junta in a kind of \u201cneither snake nor stick breaks\u201d stance. By mid-2025<\/strong>, both the KNA (BGF) and DKBA<\/strong> were publicly saying<\/strong> they would assist<\/strong> the junta\u2019s planned election.<\/p>\n

The KNU\/KNLA do not operate only in Karen State; they are also active in parts of Tanintharyi, eastern Bago<\/strong>, and Mon State<\/strong>. In Tanintharyi, the former KNDO breakaway<\/strong> now called KTLA<\/strong> is also based and operating. Areas such as Myawaddy, Thingannyinaung, Hpa-an, and Kawkareik\/Asia Highway<\/strong> are crucial to the KNU both militarily and economically<\/strong>. The junta has exploited the shifts among other Karen groups<\/strong> and some recent battlefield gains to push offensives<\/strong>, and\u2014for the first time in about two years<\/strong>\u2014the army has re-established control over the Asia Highway link between Myawaddy and Kawkareik<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Noticing that armed groups in Karen State depend significantly on customs revenues from the cross-border trade<\/strong> through Myawaddy\u2013Kawkareik\u2013Kyone Doh<\/strong>, the junta has simultaneously tried to cut those revenue routes<\/strong> while advancing militarily, moving to pinch off customs corridors from two sides<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Taken together, this suggests that on the Karen front<\/strong> the KNU\/KNLA\u2019s near-term objective<\/strong> is likely to contain<\/strong> the junta rather than launch the broad offensives<\/strong> seen in 2024; conditions for a renewed wide push do not yet exist<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Bhamo front in Kachin State<\/h3>\n

By contrast, the Bhamo<\/strong> battle in Kachin State is now entering its ninth month<\/strong>. Both sides continue fighting with heavy casualties<\/strong>, but neither has been able to score a decisive gain: rather than a clean advance or retreat, each side holds parts of the town<\/strong> and clashes continue.<\/p>\n

After the junta resupplied by river<\/strong>\u2014bringing in weapons, supplies, and personnel\u2014the military retook some sectors<\/strong>. Still, it lacks the strength<\/strong> to push the KIA out<\/strong> entirely. From the KIA side, given Bhamo\u2019s strategic<\/strong> and mobilizational<\/strong> value, they are expected to keep up their defense and counterattacks<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

While defending and making limited counter-takes around Bhamo, the junta has also opened offensives<\/strong> toward Hpakant<\/strong> and Loncai\/Lonse<\/strong> north of Myitkyina<\/strong>. In recent months, columns numbering over a thousand<\/strong> have re-entered Hpakant<\/strong>, and battles there have re-ignited.<\/p>\n

One clear aim of the junta\u2019s push into Hpakant is to cut the KIA\u2019s revenue streams<\/strong>. Despite the nationwide war since the 2021 coup\u2014and frequent clashes around Hpakant\u2014jade extraction has hardly ever stopped<\/strong>; even areas once left undisturbed, likened to \u201cgraveyards,\u201d are now being rapidly dug up wherever quick money can be made. Taxes and \u201clevies\u201d from jade<\/strong> have been tapped by various actors to fund the civil war<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Beyond jade, rare-earth mining<\/strong> is another lucrative resource. The KIA captured much of Special Region (1)<\/strong>\u2014an area rich in rare earths\u2014over the past year. The junta has recently moved to attack<\/strong> that zone as well.<\/p>\n

In short, the junta is prioritizing offensives against economically vital territories<\/strong> held by resistance forces, trying to sever revenue lifelines<\/strong> while applying military pressure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 View from September 24 (MoeMaKa, September 25, 2025) Karen State front surges with manpower and arms; Kachin State front stalls After holding the line for over a year, the coup military has, since last August, regrouped…<\/p>\n

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