{"id":7716,"date":"2025-09-19T00:06:57","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:36:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/?p=7716"},"modified":"2025-09-20T07:21:57","modified_gmt":"2025-09-20T00:51:57","slug":"could-geopolitical-tremors-emerge-in-myanmars-western-region","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/2025\/09\/could-geopolitical-tremors-emerge-in-myanmars-western-region\/","title":{"rendered":"Could geopolitical tremors emerge in Myanmar\u2019s western region?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"\"<\/a><\/h1>\n

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 View from September 17<\/h1>\n

(MoeMaKa) September 18, 2025<\/p>\n

Could geopolitical tremors emerge in Myanmar\u2019s western region?<\/h2>\n

Looking at several recent reports from Bangladesh\u2019s frontier areas adjoining Myanmar\u2019s Rakhine State, a few developments stand out. A Bangladeshi border forces commander alleged that narcotics are being smuggled across the Myanmar\u2013Bangladesh border into Bangladesh. And just days ago, news surfaced that in Bangladesh\u2019s Chattogram Division the Bangladeshi and U.S. militaries conducted Operation Pacific Angel 25-3<\/strong>, a joint air-force exercise\u2014an item that quickly spread beyond the Myanmar\u2013Bangladesh border news cycle.<\/p>\n

Because Bangladesh\u2019s caretaker government\u2014viewed by many as closer to the Western camp, especially the United States\u2014is led by Muhammad Yunus<\/strong>, questions are being asked about what these joint air exercises could mean for neighboring, war-torn Myanmar.<\/p>\n

In the days prior, social media posts claimed two U.S. Air Force C-130 transport planes flew through Myanmar airspace; then, on September 26<\/strong>, reports emerged that the U.S.\u2013Bangladesh joint exercise was held at a Bangladeshi air base in the Chattogram area.<\/p>\n

After last year\u2019s protests in Bangladesh that left dozens dead, elected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina<\/strong> fell from power and fled the country. Those events have had knock-on effects for Bangladesh\u2013Myanmar relations. Hasina had maintained close ties with China; given Beijing\u2019s investments in Rakhine\u2014such as the Kyaukphyu<\/strong> oil pipeline and deep-sea port\u2014China is almost certainly watching the shifting Bangladesh\u2013Myanmar relationship very closely.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, with the Arakan Army (AA)<\/strong> now controlling 80\u201390%<\/strong> of Rakhine State, Beijing will be keenly observing not only AA\u2013Bangladesh interactions but also how those might affect Chinese interests. For now, relations between Bangladesh\u2019s caretaker government (seen as closer to the U.S.) and the AA, which controls nearly all of Rakhine\u2019s territory, appear less than smooth. In recent months AA units have reportedly detained Bangladeshi fishing boats and crews for illicit fishing<\/strong> inside Myanmar waters around the Naf River and estuaries in Maungdaw Township. Conversely, Bangladesh has publicly complained\u2014most recently at a press briefing\u2014that drugs are being smuggled by sea<\/strong> from AA-held areas in Myanmar into Bangladesh. These episodes are creating friction between the AA and Bangladesh\u2019s border guards\u2014that is, with the Bangladeshi state itself.<\/p>\n

Taken together\u2014incursions into maritime zones for illegal fishing, illicit drug and goods smuggling, and the Chattogram joint air exercise\u2014these are becoming geopolitical signals<\/strong> to watch along this frontier. The likely cast of actors includes Bangladesh, the United States, the AA, the Myanmar military, and China<\/strong>. Bangladesh with the U.S. and, on the other side, China with the Myanmar military appear on opposing benches; that leaves open questions about where the AA positions itself<\/strong>, whose interests it overlaps with, and how those alignments may evolve.<\/p>\n

Geographically, Bangladesh and India<\/strong> sit on the western rim of the Bay of Bengal<\/strong>, with Myanmar\u2019s Rakhine coast<\/strong> on the eastern rim. Until recently, India and China had their own enduring boundary disputes and rivalry. But U.S. trade policies and \u201cAmerica-first\u201d economic moves have nudged India\u2019s calculus, while the U.S.\u2013China<\/strong> competition has in many ways overtaken the China\u2013India<\/strong> rivalry in salience. India may, for the moment, set aside some of its rivalry with China, deepen working ties with Myanmar\u2019s military, and watch how far U.S. influence extends in Bangladesh.<\/p>\n

Viewed this way, shifting geopolitics along Myanmar\u2019s western borders with Bangladesh and India<\/strong> could bear directly on the Spring Revolution<\/strong>, the broader pro-democracy struggle, and the ethnic armed organizations<\/strong>. It is therefore time to reassess and evaluate how these external moves might affect Myanmar\u2019s internal political trajectory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 View from September 17 (MoeMaKa) September 18, 2025 Could geopolitical tremors emerge in Myanmar\u2019s western region? Looking at several recent reports from Bangladesh\u2019s frontier areas adjoining Myanmar\u2019s Rakhine State, a few developments stand out. A Bangladeshi…<\/p>\n

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