{"id":7582,"date":"2025-09-09T00:43:53","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T18:13:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/?p=7582"},"modified":"2025-09-09T00:44:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T18:14:09","slug":"four-years-since-the-declaration-of-the-peoples-defensive-war-the-military-political-and-economic-situation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/2025\/09\/four-years-since-the-declaration-of-the-peoples-defensive-war-the-military-political-and-economic-situation\/","title":{"rendered":"Four years since the declaration of the People\u2019s Defensive War: the military, political, and economic situation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"\"<\/a><\/h1>\n

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 View from September 7<\/h1>\n

(Moemaka), September 8, 2025<\/p>\n

Four years since the declaration of the People\u2019s Defensive War: the military, political, and economic situation<\/h2>\n

On September 7, 2021, the National Unity Government\u2019s Acting President Duwa Lashi La<\/strong> declared the launch of the People\u2019s Defensive War<\/strong>, calling on PDF units inside Myanmar and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to join in. Today marks four full years<\/strong> since that announcement.<\/p>\n

The People\u2019s Defense Force (PDF) had been formed that May, and four months later<\/strong> the NUG issued the call\u2014popularly referred to as \u201cD-Day.\u201d<\/strong> At that time the PDFs had not yet formed nationwide. The call urged resistance with whatever strength existed, and no clear military successes<\/strong> were seen then. It was over a year later<\/strong>, after the Operation 1027<\/strong> offensive launched by the Northern Brotherhood Alliance, that towns, regiments, operational command headquarters<\/strong>, and regional command headquarters<\/strong> were taken in rapid succession.<\/p>\n

In a speech marking the fourth anniversary of the declaration, Acting President Duwa Lashi La said the brutal Myanmar military<\/strong>, which had been on the verge of collapse<\/strong>, has been regaining military, political, financial, and weapons support<\/strong> from regional countries\u2014something he lamented.<\/p>\n

He did not name those countries, but the reference likely points mainly to China and India<\/strong>. Other ASEAN states\u2014Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam<\/strong>\u2014do not have the same capacity to assist, but after the major Sagaing earthquake<\/strong> there was re-engagement diplomatically. The coup leader used the humanitarian window created by the disaster to soften diplomatic isolation<\/strong> and propagate the image<\/strong> of being a recognized government.<\/p>\n

Four years on from the declaration, fighting continues<\/strong> in many parts of Myanmar. Even in areas without active battles, airstrikes and shelling<\/strong> keep the public in fear.<\/p>\n

In territory held by EAOs and PDFs, there is still no effective way<\/strong> to fully protect against air attacks. News of civilian casualties<\/strong> from air operations is heard daily\u2014more often<\/strong> than casualties among armed fighters.<\/p>\n

Although the junta controls less than 50%<\/strong> of the country\u2019s territory, it still enjoys nationwide dominance in the air<\/strong>. It continues to sustain the aircraft, fuel, spare parts, air bases, and personnel<\/strong> needed for air operations.<\/p>\n

Another constraint for the resistance is limited access to seaports and formal cross-border trade<\/strong>. Some controlled areas have coastlines, but lack the status<\/strong> to trade officially with other countries. For example, even though the Arakan Army<\/strong> controls 80\u201390% of Rakhine State<\/strong>, it still cannot legally trade<\/strong> with Bangladesh<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

EAOs based along the China border<\/strong> can import and export essentials\u2014or obtain arms and ammunition\u2014only by adhering to China\u2019s Myanmar policy<\/strong>. Border trade and supplies in those landlocked ethnic areas depend on China\u2019s preferences<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Economically and politically, after four years there has not yet been agreement<\/strong> among the EAOs and the NUG on the future shape of the Union<\/strong>. The NUCC Federal Charter<\/strong> exists, but it has not been politically endorsed by all<\/strong> ethnic armed organizations.<\/p>\n

Part of the reason is that each EAO has different histories, political backgrounds, and geopolitics<\/strong>, making it hard to converge on a single federal model.<\/p>\n

Looking at the economy over the past four years: the junta still captures most natural-resource revenues and customs<\/strong>, spending the bulk on the war. It has not yet hit a breaking point<\/strong>. The ones truly suffering are ordinary people<\/strong>. Military restrictions on trade and on foreign-currency use<\/strong> have driven steep price inflation<\/strong>. Within the country, as goods move from one area to another, all armed actors<\/strong> collect taxes from their respective zones at non-standard rates<\/strong>, adding to price hikes. Corruption<\/strong> within the junta and its administrative machinery is at unprecedented levels<\/strong>, and the public bears the cost.<\/p>\n

Under these economic conditions, production has sagged<\/strong>. Instability has made labor scarce<\/strong>, and the conscription law<\/strong> has pushed many youths abroad; output has dropped. In some areas, even after the rice harvest, there are no buyers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

As the civil war approaches five years<\/strong>, and four years after the People\u2019s Defensive War was declared, the public\u2019s hope that the war will be won\u2014or end\u2014soon<\/strong> remains only a faint glimmer<\/strong> on a distant horizon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 View from September 7 (Moemaka), September 8, 2025 Four years since the declaration of the People\u2019s Defensive War: the military, political, and economic situation On September 7, 2021, the National Unity Government\u2019s Acting President Duwa Lashi…<\/p>\n

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