{"id":7213,"date":"2025-08-10T21:48:23","date_gmt":"2025-08-10T15:18:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/?p=7213"},"modified":"2025-08-10T21:48:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-10T15:18:25","slug":"myanmar-junta-attempts-to-regain-military-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/2025\/08\/myanmar-junta-attempts-to-regain-military-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"Myanmar Junta Attempts to Regain Military Momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 August 9 Perspective<\/strong>
(Published by MoeMaKa, August 10, 2025)<\/em><\/p>\n

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Myanmar Junta Attempts to Regain Military Momentum<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The military junta led by Min Aung Hlaing<\/strong> had suffered serious political and military setbacks by mid-2024 \u2014 losing control of many towns, regional command bases, and territories. However, about a year later, the junta was able to retake certain towns through offensives<\/strong>, and regain control of Lashio and the Northeast Regional Command<\/strong> without fighting. From a position of intense defensive warfare throughout much of 2024, the junta by mid-2025 has shown some capability to go on the offensive, retaking some towns and bases<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

In terms of diplomacy<\/strong>, the junta has regained limited engagement with ASEAN<\/strong>, and has seen a slight uptick in international contact<\/strong> compared to the previous year.<\/p>\n

The upcoming election, planned for the end of 2025<\/strong>, is now being used as a political tool<\/strong> to help the junta regain international legitimacy and engagement.<\/p>\n

In 2024, the military lost a large number of towns in northern Shan State<\/strong>, towns and bases in Kachin State<\/strong>, and nearly 90% of Rakhine State’s territory<\/strong>. It also lost key natural resource-rich areas like Hpakant (jade)<\/strong> and special regions in Kachin<\/strong>, as well as Mogok<\/strong> (known for rubies), Thabeikkyin<\/strong>, and Singu<\/strong> in Mandalay.<\/p>\n

Amid these defeats, the shift in China’s stance in August 2024<\/strong> was a critical turning point for the junta \u2014 seen as a lifeline when it was nearly drowned. China, which had supported the Three Brotherhood Alliance<\/strong> early in the Operation 1027 offensive, appeared to reassess its position<\/strong> as the tide turned, and later aligned with the junta<\/strong>, apparently in exchange for the junta agreeing to hold elections<\/strong> as China desired.<\/p>\n

The junta also used the large earthquake<\/strong> in the Sagaing\u2013Mandalay region as a strategic opportunity<\/strong>. It accepted international humanitarian aid<\/strong>, which allowed ASEAN foreign ministers<\/strong> to visit Naypyitaw \u2014 an important diplomatic opening for the otherwise isolated regime.<\/p>\n

Following the earthquake, international and ASEAN actors called for a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons<\/strong>, and the junta unilaterally declared a ceasefire<\/strong>, prompting some ethnic armed groups and NUG<\/strong> to also pause operations. However, despite the declared ceasefire, the junta continued airstrikes for more than four months<\/strong>, including after the earthquake period.<\/p>\n

In response to devastating drone attacks<\/strong> during Operation 1027, the junta spent over a year purchasing drone technology<\/strong>, establishing drone units<\/strong>, and enhancing aerial capabilities. Its recent recapture of Nawnghkio and Thabeikkyin<\/strong> is now being used to boost troop morale and showcase strength<\/strong>. Meanwhile, in Kachin State, it continues attempts to retake Hpakant and has recently recaptured an artillery battalion in the long-fought Bhamo and Sakhanthit 21 battles<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

While the junta is now struggling to regain momentum<\/strong>, resistance forces are showing signs of internal tensions and competition<\/strong>, especially around control of reclaimed areas and natural resources<\/strong>. These emerging conflicts of interest<\/strong> may provide opportunities for the junta<\/strong> if not carefully managed.<\/p>\n

With the international community distracted<\/strong> by other global conflicts and showing more interest in economic or security concerns<\/strong> than in democracy, it is increasingly important for Myanmar\u2019s resistance alliances to maintain internal unity<\/strong>, and resolve disputes cooperatively<\/strong>. Their ability to manage inter-group relations and territorial governance<\/strong> will be crucial in determining how the revolution progresses.<\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 August 9 Perspective(Published by MoeMaKa, August 10, 2025) Myanmar Junta Attempts to Regain Military Momentum The military junta led by Min Aung Hlaing had suffered serious political and military setbacks by mid-2024 \u2014 losing control of…<\/p>\n

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