{"id":6585,"date":"2025-06-23T10:40:57","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T04:10:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/?p=6585"},"modified":"2025-06-23T10:43:36","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T04:13:36","slug":"6585","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/2025\/06\/6585\/","title":{"rendered":"Thailand on the Brink of a Military Coup \u2014 What It Could Mean for Burmese People Living There"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 June 21 View<\/strong><\/p>\n

(MoeMaKa, June 22, 2025):<\/p>\n

\n

Thailand on the Brink of a Military Coup \u2014 What It Could Mean for Burmese People Living There<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Thailand is once again on the brink of a possible military coup<\/strong>, something that has become a recurring theme in the country\u2019s modern history \u2014 at least once every decade. This time, the political storm appears to be circling back once again.<\/p>\n

In 2006, the current Prime Minister Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin’s father<\/strong>, then-PM Thaksin Shinawatra<\/strong>, was ousted by a military coup. Again in 2014, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra<\/strong> was overthrown by the military. These two coups in the past 20 years both involved the Shinawatra family. Now, under the leadership of Srettha<\/strong>, the next generation of the Shinawatra political legacy, Thailand faces similar instability.<\/p>\n

Thailand\u2019s political landscape has long been shaped by military figures, royalists, and their allied political elites. Since the Red Shirt\u2013Yellow Shirt street clashes in 2009\u20132010 \u2014 which involved prolonged unrest, violence, and arson \u2014 the country has struggled to stabilize. The last civilian-led democratic administration widely acknowledged was that of PM Chuan Leekpai<\/strong> in the 1990s. Since then, Thai democracy has been pulled back and forth, stalling under military or royalist pressure.<\/p>\n

Now, as political tensions rise again, it is unclear how far this instability will go<\/strong> \u2014 or whether a full coup will materialize.<\/p>\n

This uncertainty carries potential consequences for the millions of Burmese migrant workers<\/strong> in Thailand, as well as for anti-junta activists<\/strong>, CDM participants<\/strong>, journalists<\/strong>, and members of the NUG (National Unity Government)<\/strong> living in exile. Should the military seize power again, there\u2019s strong concern that support for Myanmar\u2019s resistance movement will shrink under a more authoritarian Thai regime<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Military-to-military ties between Myanmar and Thailand<\/strong> have been consistent since 2002. Regardless of which civilian government was in place, Thailand\u2019s military and Myanmar\u2019s junta shared aligned strategic and economic interests<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Even now, under Thailand\u2019s civilian government, there have been tightened regulations and occasional arrests<\/strong> of Myanmar migrants. If a Thai military regime returns, these measures are expected to intensify<\/strong>, including detentions, forced deportations, and suppression of political activity.<\/p>\n

In recent days, authorities in Mae Sot<\/strong>, near the Thai\u2013Myanmar border, have begun confiscating e-bikes, motorized tricycles<\/strong>, and checking documents<\/strong> of drivers. Burmese migrants there are facing increased police raids<\/strong>, shop closures<\/strong>, and withdrawal of children from schools<\/strong>. Many believe this is part of a broader crackdown, driven by economic slowdown and political anxiety.<\/p>\n

Given this backdrop, a future military government in Thailand would likely worsen conditions<\/strong> for migrants and exiles, especially those without legal status.<\/p>\n

The potential impact goes beyond politics: economic instability in Thailand could also limit job opportunities<\/strong>, tighten border controls<\/strong>, and increase anti-immigrant scrutiny<\/strong> \u2014 especially toward low-income Burmese workers.<\/p>\n

Thailand\u2019s democratic fragility is directly linked to the wellbeing of Burmese migrants<\/strong>, who fled to Thailand due to Myanmar\u2019s own political chaos and conscription laws. Many now live and work in Thailand \u2014 both legally and illegally \u2014 and are watching these developments anxiously.<\/p>\n

While wealthier Burmese migrants may be able to weather the fallout, working-class migrants and political asylum seekers<\/strong> are at greater risk.<\/p>\n

Thailand has, until now, been a critical place of asylum and refuge<\/strong> for Myanmar\u2019s anti-junta resistance \u2014 unlike India, where only the Mizoram state<\/strong> has allowed ethnic Chin refugees to shelter. For many CDM civil servants and revolution supporters, Thailand remains the only viable safe haven<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why Thailand\u2019s political fate is being watched so closely \u2014 not just within its borders, but by the entire region<\/strong>. If another coup occurs, Thailand would become the second ASEAN country<\/strong> after Myanmar to fall back under military rule in recent years \u2014 something many hope to avoid.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thailand is nearing another military coup, which could threaten the stability of Burmese migrants and anti-junta activists living there. Past coups have worsened conditions for these communities, with increased police crackdowns and economic instability likely following such a political shift. The future of Burmese migrants in Thailand depends on political developments.<\/p>\n

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