{"id":10282,"date":"2026-10-16T23:56:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T17:26:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/?p=10282"},"modified":"2026-10-16T23:56:20","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T17:26:20","slug":"myanmar-kyat-depreciates-amid-growing-instability-raising-concerns-over-rising-consumer-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/2026\/10\/myanmar-kyat-depreciates-amid-growing-instability-raising-concerns-over-rising-consumer-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Myanmar Kyat Depreciates Amid Growing Instability, Raising Concerns Over Rising Consumer Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 Scenes from October<\/em> 15<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

(MoeMaKa), October 16, 2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar Kyat Depreciates Amid Growing Instability, Raising Concerns Over Rising Consumer Prices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In recent days, the Myanmar kyat has depreciated significantly against major foreign currencies, including the US dollar, Thai baht, and Chinese yuan, according to news reports. For nearly two to three years, the exchange rate had remained relatively stable at around 4,300 to 4,400 kyats per US dollar. However, recent reports indicate that the kyat has weakened to approximately 4,600 to 4,700 per dollar on the informal foreign exchange market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The depreciation follows reports that Myanmar\u2019s military-controlled parliament approved an export credit arrangement with Belarus, involving loans provided through imported goods, as well as plans for the military government to borrow more than 2 trillion kyats from the Central Bank of Myanmar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It remains unclear whether the kyat\u2019s decline is directly attributable to the government\u2019s planned borrowing from the central bank, the Belarusian loan arrangement, or a combination of these developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, these measures are widely viewed as attempts by Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s military government to sustain an economy weakened by excessive military spending, declining production, and disruptions to trade and services, using central bank financing and short-term foreign loans carrying high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time of the military coup in early 2021, the exchange rate stood at approximately 1,400 kyats per US dollar. Within just a few months, it had weakened to nearly 2,000 kyats per dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the early months following the coup, the military authorities introduced tighter controls on foreign currency entering the country through the banking system. These included checking foreign currency transfers against exporters\u2019 trade documentation and requiring civil society organizations and international nongovernmental organizations to demonstrate that they had memorandums of understanding with relevant government ministries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such restrictions significantly reduced the volume of foreign currency entering Myanmar through official banking channels, contributing to the kyat\u2019s depreciation during those years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, one year after the coup, the kyat weakened further, reaching approximately 3,000 per US dollar for the first time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The currency continued to depreciate throughout 2023 and 2024, eventually exceeding 4,000 kyats per dollar. It then remained above that level for nearly two years before experiencing another decline as 2026 approaches its end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Changing Nature of the Civil War and Rising Military Expenditures<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The nature of Myanmar\u2019s civil war has changed significantly in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compared with the early stages of the conflict, the military has increased its reliance on airstrikes many times over and expanded its use of drones. These changes in military tactics and equipment have increased the demand for foreign currency to finance military operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Myanmar\u2019s ability to earn foreign currency has weakened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Natural gas exports have declined, agricultural production has been disrupted by fighting, and labor-intensive industries, including garment manufacturing, have experienced factory closures and suspensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, the country\u2019s sources of foreign currency earnings have become increasingly limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under these circumstances, the military authorities have introduced various regulations and restrictions aimed at extracting more remittances and income tax payments from Myanmar citizens working overseas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to income tax requirements, overseas workers have been required to provide evidence of money transfers to their families in Myanmar before receiving or renewing passports and Certificates of Identity (CI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have also been cases in which migrant workers returning to Myanmar for temporary visits were required to present proof of income tax payments and family remittances before being allowed to leave the country again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These measures illustrate the military government\u2019s increasingly urgent need to secure foreign currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With military expenditures continuing to rise while domestic production declines, the depreciation of the kyat is hardly surprising. Myanmar is facing a dual economic crisis in which the costs of war are increasing even as the country\u2019s productive capacity deteriorates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Import Restrictions and the Rising Cost of Living<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over approximately the past two years, the military government has progressively tightened restrictions on imported goods in an effort to reduce demand for foreign currency and prevent further depreciation of the kyat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the currency did not experience another dramatic decline during that period, the prices of goods imported through the Thai and Chinese borders continued to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, many of these products have reached extraordinarily high prices in Myanmar\u2019s domestic markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imported goods were already being sold at disproportionately high prices before the latest currency depreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the kyat weakening again, the prices of essential commodities, including cooking oil, fuel, medicines, and everyday consumer products, could rise even further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For ordinary citizens already struggling with declining incomes, armed conflict, and economic instability, another round of currency depreciation will only compound their hardships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consequences are likely to be especially severe in regions where transportation and trade routes are difficult or disrupted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compared with major cities such as Yangon, Mandalay, Taunggyi, and Mawlamyine, residents of parts of Kachin State, Chin State, Sagaing Region, and the blockaded areas of Rakhine State are already paying substantially higher prices for basic commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A further increase in prices would place even greater pressure on households in these regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Economic Consequences of a War-Driven Economy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More broadly, the entire country is experiencing the consequences of a war-driven economy, misguided monetary and economic policies, and the diversion of national resources toward military expenditures at the expense of other economic priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These consequences are being felt across Myanmar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are some exceptions, particularly areas such as Wa State and the Kokang region, which maintain relatively independent monetary arrangements and do not depend primarily on Yangon, Mandalay, or Naypyidaw for imported goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outside such areas, however, people throughout the country are likely to experience the effects of the kyat\u2019s depreciation and rising consumer prices to varying degrees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The burden will be particularly heavy for internally displaced people, daily wage earners, those without regular employment, and families dependent on a single salary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For these households, rising prices may mean reducing food consumption, postponing medical treatment, or cutting spending on their children\u2019s education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consequences of currency depreciation are not shared equally across society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Low-income households and communities already affected by war are likely to suffer far more severely than those with greater financial resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currency Stability Depends on More Than Exchange Rates<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The value of a country\u2019s currency cannot be determined solely by the exchange rate officially set by its central bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currency stability depends on a country\u2019s productive capacity, international trade, foreign currency earnings, and public confidence in the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As long as armed conflict continues and national resources are primarily directed toward military expenditures, restoring monetary and economic stability will remain extremely difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, the most important question is not how many Myanmar kyats will be needed to purchase one US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather, it is how much longer an ordinary Myanmar worker\u2019s daily wages will be sufficient to provide the basic necessities of life for a family.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar\u2019s currency crisis is no longer simply an economic problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has become a reflection of the broader consequences of the country\u2019s civil war and political crisis, revealing the extent to which ordinary people are being forced to bear the costs of these conflicts in their everyday lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The declining value of the kyat is therefore more than a financial indicator. It is a measure of the growing hardship faced by millions of people struggling to survive amid war, economic instability, and political uncertainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 Scenes from October 15 (MoeMaKa), October 16, 2026 Myanmar Kyat Depreciates Amid Growing Instability, Raising Concerns Over Rising Consumer Prices In recent days, the Myanmar kyat has depreciated significantly against major foreign currencies, including the US…<\/p>\n

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