{"id":10249,"date":"2026-10-12T22:31:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T16:01:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/?p=10249"},"modified":"2026-10-12T22:31:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T16:01:19","slug":"a-country-in-the-horn-of-africa-facing-circumstances-similar-to-myanmar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moemaka.net\/eng\/2026\/10\/a-country-in-the-horn-of-africa-facing-circumstances-similar-to-myanmar\/","title":{"rendered":"A Country in the Horn of Africa Facing Circumstances Similar to Myanmar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 Scenes from October<\/em> 11<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

(MoeMaKa), October 12, 2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Country in the Horn of Africa Facing Circumstances Similar to Myanmar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In November 2020, just a few months before the military coup in Myanmar, intense fighting resumed in Ethiopia between government forces and the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front (TPLF), a powerful ethnic armed organization with extensive combat experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, declared that he would drown his enemies in blood as Ethiopian government troops launched a major military offensive against the TPLF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia\u2019s prime minister in 2018 after being elected by parliament. His domestic reforms and efforts to end an 18-year conflict with neighboring Eritrea earned him international recognition. In 2019, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded him the Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018, he was 42 years old. He had previously served in the Ethiopian military, reaching the rank of lieutenant colonel. Following his military career, he pursued higher education, earning an MBA and a Ph.D. in peace and conflict studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After taking office, Abiy Ahmed introduced political reforms that allowed dissidents and political exiles to return to Ethiopia. He also expanded media freedoms to some extent and succeeded in ending the long-running conflict with Eritrea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These achievements quickly gained the support of Western countries and helped him secure the Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in November 2020, Ethiopia descended into a devastating civil war when government forces launched a major military campaign against the TPLF in the northern Tigray region, which borders Eritrea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The outbreak of war placed the institutions that had honored Abiy Ahmed with the Nobel Peace Prize in an embarrassing position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From late 2020 until the signing of a ceasefire agreement in 2022, Abiy Ahmed personally participated in directing military operations alongside Ethiopian government forces during the nearly two-year civil war against the TPLF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopia is home to more than 100 ethnic groups and has numerous ethnic armed organizations fighting for equality, autonomy, and political rights. In this respect, the country bears considerable similarities to Myanmar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among Ethiopia\u2019s armed opposition groups, the TPLF has been one of the most powerful and experienced. It previously played a major role in the national government and enjoyed a substantial share of political power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the civil war between 2020 and 2022, ethnic armed groups such as the Amhara militias, commonly known as Fano, fought alongside Ethiopian government forces against the TPLF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the early stages of the war that began in late 2020, TPLF forces achieved rapid military successes and advanced toward Addis Ababa, the capital and seat of Abiy Ahmed\u2019s government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At one point, TPLF forces reportedly captured positions approximately 200 kilometers from the capital, with their closest advances reaching within about 140 kilometers of Addis Ababa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, recent reports indicate a dramatic shift in Ethiopia\u2019s political and military alliances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to reports emerging in recent weeks, Fano and other ethnic armed organizations that previously fought alongside government forces have formed an alliance with the TPLF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reported coalition, described as an alliance of seven armed groups, has allegedly agreed to work toward removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u2019s government from power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These developments have raised concerns that Ethiopia could be approaching another major civil war involving government forces and the seven-group armed alliance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nearly four years after the 2022 ceasefire agreement, Ethiopia appears to be facing the possibility of renewed large-scale conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the previous civil war, however, a new conflict may not remain limited to domestic armed groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are growing indications that neighboring countries, particularly Eritrea, which fought a prolonged war against Ethiopia in the past, could become involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, Abiy Ahmed\u2019s government has increasingly emphasized Ethiopia\u2019s ambition to secure access to the Red Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopia is a landlocked country, and access to maritime trade routes has become an important strategic priority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If another war breaks out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Ethiopian government\u2019s desire to obtain direct access to the sea could potentially become one of the underlying causes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another possibility is that Ethiopia could seek access to a seaport through Somaliland, the self-declared independent territory in northern Somalia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Horn of Africa has become increasingly important in global geopolitics because of its location along major international shipping routes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Djibouti, situated across the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Yemen, occupies a particularly strategic position near one of the world\u2019s most important maritime chokepoints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As competition over trade routes, seaports, and regional influence intensifies, Ethiopia may find itself forming new alliances with some neighboring countries while entering into confrontation with others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Ethiopia\u2019s civil war and Myanmar\u2019s ongoing conflict are not identical, they share several important characteristics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both countries face longstanding ethnic conflicts, disputes over political representation and autonomy, and situations in which armed confrontation has often taken precedence over political negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopia has a population of more than 140 million people. Since 2018, the country has experienced increased foreign investment, including substantial Chinese involvement in infrastructure development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has financed and constructed roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects through long-term loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In return, the Ethiopian government has provided favorable land-leasing arrangements, sometimes at extremely low costs, to facilitate Chinese investment in special economic zones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many years, Ethiopia was internationally associated with famine, poverty, and underdevelopment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its education system and transportation infrastructure were once so limited that stories emerged of children running long distances, sometimes dozens of miles, to attend school.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of these young runners later became internationally recognized marathon champions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, Ethiopia faces a different set of challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Civil war, ethnic rights, demands for self-government, federalism, and competing interests among neighboring countries have combined to create a highly unstable political environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The involvement of regional powers, including their indirect influence over domestic armed organizations, has further complicated the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taken together, these factors appear to have brought Ethiopia once again to the brink of renewed civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar shares several of these historical and political characteristics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar is also home to more than 100 ethnic groups and has experienced the emergence of numerous armed organizations since independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For more than seven decades, approaching eight decades, the country has endured recurring armed conflicts without achieving lasting peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between approximately 1949 and 1952, Myanmar experienced a nationwide civil war involving multiple armed groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 70 years later, beginning in late 2021, Myanmar once again descended into a second period of nationwide civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopia, located in the Horn of Africa near the Middle East, is a multiethnic country whose political future remains deeply affected by unresolved ethnic disputes and regional geopolitical competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar, meanwhile, occupies a strategically important position in Southeast Asia between two major powers, China and India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has a long history of failing to resolve political disagreements through political means, repeatedly allowing armed conflict to become the dominant method of confrontation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the two countries differ in their histories, political structures, and geopolitical environments, their experiences reveal striking parallels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both Ethiopia and Myanmar continue to struggle with questions of ethnic equality, federalism, political power-sharing, and the role of armed organizations in determining the future of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, examining Ethiopia\u2019s unfolding crisis alongside Myanmar\u2019s prolonged civil war provides an opportunity to reflect on the similarities and differences in the political destinies of these two countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Translator\u2019s note: This is a faithful English translation of the October 11 commentary, preserving the author\u2019s analysis, reported developments, and interpretations. Claims concerning the reported seven-group alliance and the prospect of renewed war have not been independently verified.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myanmar Spring Chronicle \u2013 Scenes from October 11 (MoeMaKa), October 12, 2026 A Country in the Horn of Africa Facing Circumstances Similar to Myanmar In November 2020, just a few months before the military coup in Myanmar, intense fighting resumed…<\/p>\n

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